Rainfall Forecast: 07 – 14 October 2025

The Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is expected to experience enhanced rainfall and warmer conditions during the week of 7th to 14th October 2025, according to the latest regional forecast. While some areas may benefit from increased moisture supporting agriculture and water resources, others face an elevated risk of flooding and heat stress.

Total Rainfall Distribution

Heavy rainfall (above 200mm) is expected over a few parts of southern Ethiopia, likely improving water availability but also increasing flood risk in low-lying and riverine areas.

Moderate rainfall (50–200mm) is forecast for northern and southern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, western and central Uganda, Rwanda, northern Burundi, western South Sudan, and south-western Sudan. This will enhance agricultural prospects and pasture regeneration in parts of the region.

Light rainfall (less than 50mm) is anticipated in eastern and northern Tanzania, southern and eastern Kenya, southern Burundi, central Somalia, Eritrea, and south-eastern regions of both Sudan and South Sudan, maintaining relatively dry conditions in these zones.

Note: 1 mm of rainfall equals 1 litre of water per square metre.

Rainfall Anomalies

Above-average rainfall is expected over northern Somalia, central to southern Ethiopia, north-western South Sudan, south-western Sudan, and most of Rwanda and Burundi.

Below-average rainfall is likely in central Somalia, southern Uganda, western Kenya, and parts of South Sudan, where prolonged dryness may affect ongoing planting and water supplies.

Exceptional Rainfall and Flood Risk

Rainfall exceeding the 95th percentile (the highest 5% on record) is forecast over south-eastern Ethiopia and northern Somalia. Consequently, there is a high likelihood of flooding in south-eastern and pockets of central-western Ethiopia, particularly in flood-prone river basins and areas with poor drainage. Local authorities are urged to activate early warning systems and sensitize communities to potential flood hazards.

Flood Risk Advisory

There is a high likelihood of flooding in south-eastern and pockets of central-western Ethiopia, where persistent heavy rainfall is expected. Authorities are urged to maintain vigilance and strengthen early warning systems to mitigate the impacts on communities, infrastructure, and livelihoods.

Temperature Forecast: 07 – 14 October 2025

The same period will see warmer than average conditions across most of the Greater Horn of Africa, with significant variations by region.

Temperature Distribution

High temperatures (>32°C) are expected in the Afar region of Ethiopia, where extreme heat could affect outdoor activities, water availability, and livestock.

Moderate to high temperatures (20–32°C) are likely over most parts of Sudan, South Sudan, Uganda, Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and eastern Ethiopia. These conditions are typical for this period but remain warmer than the long-term seasonal average.

Mild temperatures (below 20°C) are forecast in central Ethiopia, central to south-western Kenya, northern and central Tanzania, and western Rwanda and Burundi, offering some relief from regional heat trends.

Temperature Anomalies

Warmer than usual temperatures are expected across most parts of the GHA, consistent with broader regional warming trends observed in recent years.

Cooler than average conditions may occur in northern Sudan and parts of the Great Rift Valley, where cloud cover and rainfall could moderate daytime heating.

Heat Stress Outlook

The forecast indicates elevated heat stress levels in parts of the Red Sea coast and the Afar region of Ethiopia. Residents are advised to stay hydrated, limit exposure during peak hours, and take necessary precautions to avoid heat-related illnesses.

Summary and Advisory

The 07–14 October 2025 forecast highlights a mixed weather pattern across the Greater Horn of Africa marked by above-average rainfall in the east and flood threats in Ethiopia and Somalia, coupled with warmer than normal temperatures regionwide.

Authorities, humanitarian agencies, and communities are urged to:

Monitor flood-prone areas closely and maintain early warning systems.

Prepare for potential disruptions to transportation and agriculture due to heavy rainfall.

Adopt heat mitigation measures, particularly in high-risk zones like the Afar region and Red Sea coast.

Overall, the forecast points to a dynamic climate week ahead, with beneficial rainfall for some areas and heightened environmental risks in others underscoring the importance of continued vigilance and preparedness across the Greater Horn of Africa.

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