“Behold, I will make peace flow towards her like a river, and like an overflowing stream the glory of the nations.” (Isaiah 66:12)

INTRODUCTION

When we hear the phrase “I have a dream,” we often recall Dr. Martin Luther King Jr.’s famous speech delivered on 28 August 1963, in which he envisioned a reconciled American society where Black people enjoy the same rights as their White brothers and sisters. However, dreaming is not limited to a select few. The biblical prophet Joel foresaw a time when the gift of prophecy would be available to all: “After this, I will pour out my Spirit on all flesh. Your sons and daughters will prophesy, your elders will dream dreams, your young men will see visions.” (Joel 3:1). On Pentecost day, the Apostle Peter referenced this prophecy to explain the transformations occurring within the early Church (cf. Acts 2:16-18). This signifies a period when the gifts of vision and dreams became accessible to everyone. Proverbs emphasises this necessity: “Without vision, the people live without restraint.” (Proverbs 29:18).

When the African Union (AU) celebrated its fiftieth anniversary in 2013—having succeeded the Organisation of African Unity (OAU)—it had a vision of “an integrated, prosperous, and peaceful Africa, driven by its own citizens and representing a dynamic force in the international arena.” This vision underpins the AU’s ambitious Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want for the coming decades.

In his address upon taking the presidency of the African Union Conference of Heads of State and Government on 14 February 2026, Burundi President Evariste Ndayishimiye declared: “During our presidency, we will spare no effort in support of the ‘Silencing the Guns’ initiative, which embodies our peoples’ deep aspiration to live in security, dignity, and hope.”

Following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Symposium of Episcopal Conferences of Africa and Madagascar (SECAM) and the African Union on 13 February 2026, this paper aims to bring a faith-based perspective on the AU’s dream of silencing the guns in Africa by 2030, with a specific emphasis on the role of ethics and discernment.

To achieve our objective, we will first outline the key elements of Agenda 2063 related to peace and security in Africa. Next, we will briefly examine the root causes of the continent’s conflicts. Finally, we will illustrate how ethics and discernment can play a vital role in fulfilling the African Union’s vision for a peaceful and secure Africa.

1. THE VISION OF PEACE AND SECURITY IN AGENDA 2063

Agenda 2063: The Africa We Want is founded on seven aspirations, each encompassing specific objectives and priority sectors. These aspirations are as follows:

Aspiration 1: A prosperous Africa, based on inclusive growth and sustainable development.

Aspiration 2: An integrated continent, politically united and based on the ideals of Pan-Africanism and the vision of Africa’s Renaissance.

Aspiration 3: An Africa of good governance, democracy, respect for human rights, justice, and the rule of law.

Aspiration 4: A peaceful and secure Africa.

Aspiration 5: An Africa with a strong cultural identity, common heritage, shared values, and ethics.

Aspiration 6: An Africa whose development is people-driven, relying on the potential of African people, especially its women and youth, and caring for children.

Aspiration 7: Africa as a strong, united, resilient, and influential global player and partner.

The theme of peace and security is addressed in Aspiration 4, which, in my view, should have been prioritised as the foundational aspiration for all others. The objectives and priority sectors of Aspiration 4 are as follows:

1) Peace and security are preserved.

2) Strengthen governance, accountability, and transparency as the foundations for a peaceful Africa.

3) Foster a stable and peaceful Africa by enhancing mechanisms for peace and reconciliation at all levels, while addressing emerging threats to peace and security on the continent.

4) Ensure the full and effective functioning of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA).

5) Develop strategies to enable the continent to finance its security needs.

One of Aspiration 4’s flagship programmes is “Silencing the Guns.” In 2013, the AU aimed to achieve this objective by 2020. However, it became evident that this target was not going to be met that year. Unfortunately, weapons continue to make noise across the continent: in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, Northern Mozambique, Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, and the English-speaking regions of Cameroon, among other notable examples.

In 2023, the first decade of implementing Agenda 2063 concluded, with the sobering realisation that the guns remain unsilenced and new hotspots of tension have emerged. Nonetheless, in February 2024, the AU launched the second phase of Agenda 2063 for the period 2024-2033.

This new decade is grounded in seven major ambitions or moonshots, each linked to the aspirations previously mentioned. The first moonshot is to transform every Member State into a middle-income country by 2033. The second moonshot focuses on consolidating integration and improving connectivity across Africa. The third moonshot seeks to enhance the responsiveness of public institutions. The fourth moonshot concerns peace and aims to resolve conflicts peacefully on the continent. The fifth moonshot involves raising awareness and promoting African values. The sixth moonshot pertains to bolstering the autonomy and productivity of African citizens. Lastly, the seventh moonshot aspires to transform Africa into a strong and influential global player.

Despite the progress achieved in the first decade, the AU acknowledges that our continent continues to face numerous armed conflicts. Africa’s ambition is to become a land of peace and security by 2033. To attain this objective, the AU has established the following two strategic objectives along with their related targets.

The first one is strengthening peace and security. The AU aims to proactively identify and address all peace and security risks within Member States. The implementation of the following strategies is essential to achieving this objective:

1. Establish and operationalise early warning and conflict prevention mechanisms at all levels (national, regional, and continental).

1. Develop mechanisms to foster a culture of peace within all development processes.

2. Create special programmes to promote the inclusion of ethnic minority groups in peace and security matters.

3. Integrate peace education into school curricula.

4. Promote reconciliation and mediation efforts.

5. Incorporate a gender perspective into discussions on peace and security and enhance the role of women in these domains.

6. Implement mechanisms for conflict prevention and resolution and for the eradication of terrorism across all levels.

The second strategic objective is to strengthen mechanisms addressing peace, security, and stability issues. The attainment of this strategic objective is based on three pillars:

Firstly, to silence the guns in Africa by 2030 and eliminate all forms of armed groups.

Secondly, to ensure the full operationalisation of the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and other continental frameworks focused on peace, security, and stability.

Finally, the AU aims to accelerate the implementation of the ‘Silencing the Guns’ flagship project. Additionally, efforts will be made to ensure that structures such as the Panel of the Wise and the Continental Early Warning System are fully operational, enabling them to effectively fulfil their mandates in conflict prevention and resolution.

One might say that when it comes to peace and security, the AU has articulated a clear vision of its desired outcomes. The lingering question is whether it possesses the necessary strength to realise that vision. The repeated adjustments to the timeline for silencing arms in Africa—shifting from 2020 to 2030—indicate this may not be the case. What guarantees exist that this effort will not extend into subsequent decades, leaving us to grapple with the prospect of still envisioning a day when the guns in Africa are silenced in 2063?

1. THE ROOT CAUSES OF VIOLENT CONFLICTS IN AFRICA

Effective promotion of peace and security in Africa necessitates a comprehensive understanding of the root causes of the continent’s conflicts. In summary, three primary causes are particularly notable. The first is what some have called “the curse of natural resources.” The second is poverty or misery. The third is bad governance.

2.1. The Curse of Natural Resources

I would like to share an anecdote from Bishop Sébastien Muyengo of Uvira Diocese in eastern DRC. This prelate, who leads CENCO’s Natural Resources Commission [1], attended an international conference in the United States focused on DRC’s natural resources. During the conference, a map displaying the minerals found in Congolese soil was projected onto a large screen. The visual impact was striking; an Australian participant sitting next to the bishop remarked, “Do you think they’re going to leave you in peace with all this?” [2] This comment highlights the greed of those who view the continent merely as a reserve for external exploitation.

While it may not often be discussed, it is essential to remain vigilant. The current emphasis on ecological transition could ultimately harm the African people, who have long inhabited lands rich in strategic minerals coveted by non-African multinationals. For instance, the discovery of significant gas reserves in Cabo Delgado in Northern Mozambique has fuelled the rise of a jihadist movement in the region. The words of Saint James in the New Testament resonate powerfully in today’s geopolitical and geostrategic landscape: “Where do wars come from? Where do the battles among you come from? You covet but do not possess; you kill. You are jealous but cannot have; you fight and make war.“ (James 4:1-2).

In his seminal work, The Bottom Billion, Paul Collier identifies “the natural resource trap” as one of four factors that impede the prosperity of poor countries [3]. Collier approaches the subject from a different perspective, arguing that resource-rich nations can become ensnared in a trap where the wealth generated from these resources stifles broad-based economic development and fosters corruption.

Dependence on natural resource revenues can make governments overly reliant on these funds, reducing their motivation to develop other industries and diversify their economies. Moreover, this emphasis on resource extraction can lead to the neglect of crucial sectors such as education and healthcare. As a result, a lack of transparency and accountability often emerges, encouraging corruption and mismanagement, which entrenches poverty rather than alleviating it.

Next, we will examine how poverty serves as a breeding ground for conflict on our continent.

2.2. Poverty as a Cause of Unrest in Africa

To illustrate how the lack of sustainable development and poverty are behind much unrest in Africa, I will focus on the case of the Sahel region. It is a vast area extending from the Atlantic Ocean in the west to the Red Sea in the east, defined by its distinct geography and climatic conditions. However, it also faces severe socio-economic challenges that lead to widespread poverty. This poverty acts as a significant catalyst for conflict and unrest in the area.

Poverty in the Sahel is complex, involving not only material deprivation but also limited access to essential services, education, and economic opportunities. The region suffers from inadequate infrastructure, restricted healthcare access, and insufficient educational facilities. Consequently, millions of individuals and families live in conditions that prevent them from achieving a decent standard of living. This deprivation fosters discontent, as marginalised populations often view their circumstances as the result of systemic injustice and neglect by their local governments.

In many parts of the Sahel, particularly where agriculture is the primary livelihood, there is intense competition for land and water. As climate change worsens and environmental degradation escalates, arable land and water sources become increasingly scarce. This scarcity heightens tensions among communities and exacerbates ethnic and social divisions. Marginalised groups, feeling threatened, may resort to violence to secure their livelihoods, resulting in cycles of conflict that disrupt entire communities and destabilise regions.

Furthermore, poverty creates a socio-political vacuum that extremist groups and criminal organisations can exploit. In the absence of strong governance and law enforcement, impoverished communities often seek alternative forms of authority. In the Sahel, this has led to the rise of militant groups linked to jihadist ideologies and organised crime, which thrive in chaotic environments where state authority is weak. These groups frequently provide economic incentives and social services, positioning themselves as viable alternatives to ineffective governments. This dynamic draws vulnerable populations into their orbit, perpetuating a cycle of violence and instability that is difficult to break. As Yssouf Traoré notes:

In Mali, AQIM [Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb] leaders used marriages with local tribes, the procurement of commodities, medical care for the disenfranchised population, and bribery of state officials to embed themselves in the Sahara desert. In Northern Mali, while preaching Salafi-Jihadism, AQIM sought to seduce locals with captivating rhetoric of social justice, equity, and welfare, and then proceeded to ransom money from kidnapped Westerners. [4]

Furthermore, citing an article published in July 2017 by John May and Hans Groth, entitled “Failure to Address Africa’s Rising Population is not an Option,” Traoré writes:

Currently, over half of the African population is young and unemployed. The Sahel region displays the highest population growth rate, fluctuating between 3 and 4 percent. The African population will exceed 2 billion people by 2050 and 4 billion by 2100. According to the International Monetary Fund, if this trend stays consistent, the countries in the region will have to create 20 million jobs a year over the next twenty-five years to absorb unemployment.[5]

The relationship between poverty and conflict in the Sahel is further complicated by armed conflicts that have spread across borders, involving neighbouring countries and international actors. As violence escalates, states often respond with militarised tactics instead of addressing the underlying socio-economic issues. This militarisation frequently intensifies the cycle of violence, resulting in displacement and greater poverty. Internally displaced persons and refugees often find themselves in precarious situations, lacking support and opportunities, which makes them more vulnerable to recruitment by militant groups seeking to exploit their circumstances.

2.3. Bad Governance

Governance, defined as the processes and structures through which state authority is exercised, plays a crucial role in determining the quality of life for citizens, fostering societal cohesion, and ultimately influencing the presence or absence of peace. In the African context, bad governance manifests itself in various forms, including corruption, lack of accountability, authoritarian rule, and inadequate policy implementation, all of which perpetuate cycles of unrest and conflict.

At the core of bad governance is corruption, a real moral cancer that undermines institutions and erodes public trust. In many African nations, government officials engage in corrupt practices for personal gain at the expense of public welfare. The diversion of resources intended for essential services such as education, healthcare, and infrastructure diminishes the quality of life and fuels disenfranchisement among citizens. When the youth, in particular, perceive that their government prioritises its interests over public service, feelings of betrayal and anger can fester, often leading to civil unrest.

In addition to corruption, ineffective governance is characterised by a lack of accountability and transparency. Governments that do not operate within an open and equitable framework often create environments conducive to oppression, where dissent is suppressed, and human rights are routinely violated. In such oppressive climates, marginalised groups may resort to armed resistance or insurgency to reclaim their rights and assert their voices. Consequently, the absence of democratic processes and respect for civil liberties undermines peacebuilding efforts, rendering dialogue and reconciliation nearly impossible.

The fragility of state institutions further exacerbates the challenges associated with poor governance. In many African countries, state institutions are often weak, lacking the capacity to maintain law and order or provide essential services. This weakness creates a power vacuum that non-state actors, including tribal militias, warlords, and extremist groups, can exploit.

Furthermore, a lack of inclusivity in governance processes can foster feelings of alienation among various ethnic and social groups. In Africa, where identity plays a crucial role in societal structures, exclusionary practices can breed resentment and lead to violent confrontations. The democratic model of “winner takes all,” which often follows rigged elections, is certainly not ideal for Africa, as many ethnic and tribal groups will always feel alienated from the political process. Exclusion usually leads to civil unrest.

3. THE ROLE OF ETHICS AND DISCERNMENT

3.1. Ethical Solutions to Ethical Problems

The persistent lack of peace and security in Africa represents a profound ethical crisis. Whether addressing the actions of predators or their accomplices throughout the continent, the persistence of extreme poverty, or issues stemming from mismanagement and inadequate governance, each aspect points to a significant ethical challenge that necessitates strong ethical leadership at multiple levels.

Ethical leadership is much needed on our continent. It ensures that leaders are transparent in their actions and accountable to the people. This builds trust and encourages public participation in governance. Likewise, promoting education that instils values and critical skills in young people prepares them to be responsible leaders in the future.

Selecting appropriate leaders is of paramount importance. Citizens deserve to understand the positions of candidates for the highest offices and parliamentary roles regarding ethnic coexistence and inclusion. It is essential to avoid supporting individuals who hold misguided views about other ethnic groups. For example, a woman who is dating a known violent man should not be surprised if she becomes a victim of domestic violence; understanding one’s commitments is vital. Concurrently, it is imperative to heed the moral guidance of responsible leaders.

Africans need to break free from complacency if they want to reclaim control of their future. A published book by Robert Bourgi[6], a prominent figure in what is known as “La Françafrique,” exposes how African leaders have invested millions of dollars in supporting political leaders in France, while their own citizens struggle to meet basic needs. Choosing not to financially back French politicians can pose serious challenges for African presidents and may even trigger civil unrest in their own countries. Despite this issue persisting for decades, most of the population has remained oblivious to it.

3.2. Discerning which Type of Peace we Want

Discerning is the ability to judge well. It is essential to determine the type of peace we wish to promote in Africa. Inspired by Chief Rabbi Albert Guigui [7], we can consider three paradigms of peace: peace-as-a-bird, peace-as-a-pot, and peace-as-a-river. It is vital for Africans today to choose which one they want to promote.

1) Peace-as-a-Bird

Peace like a bird symbolizes a protective force, akin to a bird safeguarding its young while poised to defend against potential threats. This form of peace relies on a deterrent to prevent adversaries from acting, providing security for some while instilling fear in others. The bird, with its wings spread to shield its family, maintains vigilance, aware that any lapse in attention can jeopardise their safety. Thus, it creates peace through preparedness for conflict, cultivating fear in potential aggressors.

This paradigm is characterised by an emphasis on militarisation intended to intimidate enemies, and its stability hinges on the fear it instils.

2) Peace-as-a-Pot

The second paradigm, peace as a pot, illustrates the tension between fire and water, where fire consumes water and water extinguishes fire. The pot serves as a fragile vessel for sustaining a delicate peace between these opposing elements, with the water simmering without extinguishing the flames. In this scenario, violence and instability are introduced into the enemy nation through means such as terrorism, jihadism, or support for rebel movements. The objective is to incite turmoil, thereby weakening the enemy and diminishing its power, creating dissent that disrupts the equilibrium on the opposing side.

Under the influence of fire, the bottom of the pot darkens. Anyone attempting to mediate peace between two parties may find themselves affected by this darkness, as both sides may perceive the mediator as favouring the other. In this context, the African Union’s role in maintaining peace on the continent could be likened to that of a cooking pot, maintaining a separation between the forces of fire and water.

These approaches represent different visions of peace. However, Africa does not need the peace of the bird or the peace of the pot. What it truly requires is peace like a river.

3) Peace-as-a-River

This dynamic form of peace seeks something deeper than the mere absence of war. The river, which belongs to no one, traverses multiple regions and countries, nourishing them and providing sustenance.

On one hand, it never demands what is owed to it. Instead, it relinquishes its abundant, living waters, generously and indiscriminately nourishing others without expecting anything in return. This peace is the most beautiful of all, as its economic and geographical attributes encourage individuals and nations to unite around shared responsibilities, openness, and generosity. Like a river, peace brings people together, shares resources, enriches lives, and fulfils everyone. Thus, peace, like a river, benefits all and is inherently tied to sustainable development.

Two biblical prophets, Isaiah of Jerusalem and Micah (Isaiah 2:2-4; Micah 4:1-4), who prophesied in the eighth century BC, offer significant insights on peace. According to both of them, it will happen in the future that the nations will come up to the mountain of the Lord, to the house of the God of Jacob, who teaches them his ways, and they will follow his paths. Once instructed by the Lord, a transformation occurs on the global stage. Divine teaching advocates for peace, prompting nations to transform their swords into ploughshares and their spears into pruning hooks.

The swords and spears symbolise the instruments of war, akin to today’s military industry. Conversely, the ploughshares and pruning hooks represent agricultural tools linked to the agri-food industry. In essence, God’s vision, conveyed by Isaiah and Micah, envisions a humanity where investments from nations shift away from military endeavours towards development. Rather than funnelling resources into tanks, guns, drones, and missiles that destroy lives, nations enlightened by the Lord’s teachings will collaborate to foster sustainable development and mutual prosperity. No longer will one nation raise a sword against another, nor will warfare be the agenda of the day. This vision, articulated twenty-eight centuries ago by prophets Isaiah and Micah, anticipates a humanity where industry serves the purposes of peace and development. The military must operate in a subordinate role to the agri-food sector to ensure shared prosperity, aligning with the peace paradigm described in Isaiah 66:12: “Behold, I will make peace flow towards her like a river, and like an overflowing stream the glory of the nations.”

1. CONCLUSION

The dream of a prosperous and peaceful Africa may seem like a mirage to many Africans today, leading some to lose trust in the African Union and the continent’s leaders. However, as Pope Francis of blessed memory stated, the world looks to Africa as “the Continent of Hope.”

Agenda 2063 serves as a strategic programme for the entire continent and should be studied and promoted by all. Each sector of society must contribute at its own level—nationally, regionally, and continentally. Academic institutions should train today’s Africans to be vigilant, sounding the alarm in times of danger. If current trends continue, we risk being recolonised and enslaved in our own land.

There can be no African Renaissance without a moral renaissance. The type of African leadership that failed to silence the guns by 2020 should not be replicated in the years to come; otherwise, by 2063, we may find ourselves disillusioned with what a century of the AU has truly provided for the lives of Africans.

We also hope that civil society organisations and faith-based communities will not merely act as cooking pots, trying to mediate between water and fire, but will instead promote peace as a river, allowing all to benefit from the natural and human resources that the Creator has blessed Africa with.

Fr. Dr. Louison Emerick Bissila Mbila, C.S.Sp.

Email: lebissilam@gmail.com. WhatsApp: +248 2668633

Bibliographical Notes

[1] CENCO stands for Conférence Épiscopale Nationale du Congo (National Episcopal Conference of Congo).

[2] Témoignage de Mgr Sébastien Muyengo

[3] Paul Collier, The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done about It, London, Oxford University Press, 2008. The four causes are: the conflict trap, the natural resource trap, being landlocked with bad neighbours, and bad governance.

[4] Yssouf Traoré, “Countering Violent Extremism in the Sahel,” in Margee Ensign & Jean-Pierre Karegeye (eds.), Religion and War in Africa, London/New York, 2020, pp. 117-118.

[5] Yssouf Traoré, “Countering Violent Extremism in the Sahel,” p. 118.

[6] Robert Bourgi, Ils savent que je sais tout. Ma vie en françafrique, Paris, Max Milo, 2024.

[7] Cf. Albert Guigui, Le judaïsme. Vécu et mémoire, Bruxelles, Éditions Racine, 2004, pp. 133-134.

This article was first published on Doctor Emerick’s Substack.

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